Friday, January 3, 2014

NFC Wild Card Preview - San Francisco vs Green Bay

Image Credit: Flickr
The San Francisco 49ers will be taking on the NFC North Champ Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in what may be the coldest game in NFL history.

The game will be played in what is forecast to be a high of -3 degrees and get as cold as -23 and could very well be the coldest game played in NFL history! With the weather like that you can expect to see a lot of ground and pound action all day which is something both of these teams do pretty well (Green Bay ranked #7th, San Francisco ranked #3).  As of now the coldest game was the Ice Bowl in 1967. You could probably guess where that game was played as well, Lambeau Field where they recorded a temperature of -13 degrees.

The San Francisco 49ers have won 3-straight over Aaron Rodgers and the Pack dating back to September 2012 including an NFC divisional playoff game last January. Only one of those wins came in Green Bay, San Francisco winning 30-22, but in that game the starting QB for the 49ers was a guy by the name of Alex Smith.

The San Francisco 49ers are coming into this game as one of the hottest teams in the NFL and are currently on a 6-game winning streak. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick is coming off a great season, throwing for 21 TD's and 8 INT's, and will be doing whatever is asked of him in order to come out of Lambeau Field with a win. Most of the workload will probably be handed to RB Frank Gore who is one of the most bruising backs in the league and coming off his seventh 1,000 yard rushing season.

The Green Bay Packers will have their hands full on the defensive side trying to contain Frank Gore while also being aware of the dual-threat QB in Kaepernick. Green Bays defense ranks in the bottom 10 against the pass and the run, which sets up a tough match-up against a top-3 rushing attack in San Francisco. To make matter worse the Packers have already confirmed the star of their defense Clay Matthews will be out because of a thumb injury he had to have surgery on a week ago.

There is an Achilles heel to that run attack tho and that is the ball security when running it. Frank Gore has lost all three of his fumbles this season, and the 2nd leading rusher Kaepernick has fumbled three times as well although he has only lost one of those fumbles. As long as the Packers defense is aware of that and considering the freezing environment it shouldn't be too difficult to knock a couple balls loose.

The Green Bay Packers were able to keep a respectable offense during Rodgers absence thanks in large part to the outstanding play by rookie RB Eddie Lacy who rushed for over 1,000 yards, the first Packer since RB Ryan Grant accomplished the feat in 2009. Lacy lead all rookies in rushing with 1,178 yards, as well as being 3rd in the NFL in rushing TD's with 11 in his rookie campaign (Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch tied for 1st with 12 rushing TD's each).

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers seemed to be a bit rusty in his first game back since breaking his collarbone, but he was able to pull out the win on a deep TD pass late in the game that looked very Rodger-esque. He still is Aaron Rodgers and should be able to shake off the rust by the time these two teams meet Sunday evening, and if not he can always just hand that pigskin over to Lacy and let him do what he's been doing all season.

Prediction:

GB over SF 22-21

I'm expecting Green Bay to win because of a couple different factors. One has got to be the weather, and yes I know Kaepernick grew up in Wisconsin and knows about the weather and all that, but Rodgers has been playing professional football in that weather since 2005. Another factor I think will be turnovers and although San Fran's defense is levels above the Packers, the Pack have been able to cause 12 turnovers in their last 5 games.

Also check out my story on Lovie Smith making his return to the NFL, posted on SportsPassion.net, as well as my preview into the Chargers vs Bengals AFC Wild Card game.

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